Market Intel: Warehouse & Logistics Data — Week of 2026-02-23
Weekly warehouse market data roundup covering employment, industrial production, diesel prices, freight rates, and vacancy trends.
The latest warehouse and logistics data is in. Here's what moved, what it means, and what to do about it.
Key Numbers
| Metric | Current | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warehouse Employment | 1,827K | -0.3% | -2.9% |
| Industrial Production (Index) | 102.3 | +0.7% | +2.3% |
| Diesel Price ($/gal) | $3.81 | +8.2% | N/A |
| Industrial Vacancy | 9.6% | +40 bps | +160 bps |
| Avg. Industrial Rent ($/SF) | $8.94 | +$0.07 | +5.1% |
What Changed
Warehouse Employment held at 1,827K — still the January BLS print reported last edition (Source: BLS). No new monthly data until the March 6 employment release. The sector remains down 2.9% year-over-year.
Industrial Production rose 0.7% in January to 102.3, per the G.17 release on February 18 (Source: Federal Reserve). The same index level as last edition's December reading, but only because December was revised down from +0.4% to +0.2%. The January gain — the largest since February 2025 — was broad-based, with manufacturing output up 0.6% and capacity utilization rising to 76.2%.
Diesel Price ($/gal) jumped to $3.81 for the week ending Feb. 23 (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration) — a sharp reversal from the $3.69 reported two weeks ago and well above EIA's $3.50 full-year forecast. Geopolitical tension around Iran and rising crude prices are the primary drivers.
Industrial Vacancy rose to 9.6% nationally as of January 2026, up 40 basis points from December's 9.2% and 160 bps year-over-year (Source: CommercialEdge). So much for the plateau — the expected stabilization hasn't materialized yet, with 355.7 million SF still under construction nationally.
Avg. Industrial Rent reached $8.94/SF nationally as of January, up from $8.87 at year-end 2025 and 5.1% year-over-year (Source: CommercialEdge). Rent growth continues to decelerate but remains positive.
What It Means for Operators
The manufacturing uptick is the headline here. Industrial production's 0.7% January gain — the largest monthly increase since February 2025 — was broad-based across durable and nondurable goods. For operators, more production means more goods moving through warehouses in the coming weeks. If your Q1 has felt sluggish, the data suggests the pipeline is filling back up.
The diesel reversal is the unwelcome surprise. Two weeks ago we noted the downward trend and suggested modeling surcharges at $3.40–$3.60 for mid-year. At $3.81/gallon (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration), that call looks premature — geopolitical tension around Iran and crude supply concerns have pushed pump prices $0.12/gal higher in two weeks. Operators with fuel surcharge pass-throughs should verify their surcharge tables are current. Those eating fuel costs directly just saw their per-gallon cost jump meaningfully. EIA's $3.50 annual average forecast still stands, but in our view, the near-term trajectory is more uncertain than it looked at the start of February. Hold off on restructuring surcharges until the geopolitical picture clarifies.
The labor picture hasn't changed — 1,827K is the same January BLS print. As we noted last edition, warehouse employment is down nearly 6% from the 2022 peak, transportation sector unemployment is at 4.4% (Source: BTS), and the staffing market continues to loosen. The advice from two weeks ago still holds: if you're heading into staffing contract renewals, push for rate concessions. Next fresh read comes with the March 6 employment report.
Regional Snapshot
The national vacancy story has a regional twist. Atlanta still leads in-place rent growth, though the pace has slowed — 8% year-over-year in January, down from 8.8% at year-end 2025 (Source: CommercialEdge). Miami and Tampa both posted 7.4% rent growth. If you're operating in either Florida market, in our view your lease renewal window is narrowing — Tampa in particular has been constrained by geography, with only 33.6 million square feet delivered between 2020 and 2024 despite consistent demand growth.
Port markets face additional uncertainty heading into spring. The CommercialEdge February report flags potential turbulence from looming tariffs on port cranes, geopolitical developments at the Panama Canal, and the Supreme Court's reversal of Liberation Day tariffs — all of which could reshape container flows and, by extension, warehouse demand in coastal logistics corridors.
On the West Coast, California's Central Valley remains the region's most affordable industrial market, but new lease premiums of roughly $2/SF above in-place rents signal that the cost gap is narrowing (Source: CommercialEdge). Operators scouting expansion in cheaper inland markets should move with that trend in mind.
Market data cited in this post is sourced from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve (FRED), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and CommercialEdge and reflects conditions as of 2026-02-27. 3PL Signal does not independently verify third-party data. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as the basis for business, financial, or operational decisions. Always verify current market conditions through primary sources and consult qualified professionals before acting.
*Data sources are linked above. All figures are latest available as of 2026-02-27.