Market Intel: Warehouse & Logistics Data — Week of 2026-02-09

The latest warehouse and logistics data is in. Here's what moved, what it means, and what to do about it.

Key Numbers

Metric	Current	MoM	YoY
Warehouse Employment	1,827K	-0.3%	-2.9%
Industrial Production (Index)	102.3	+0.4%	+2.0%
Diesel Price ($/gal)	$3.69	+1.9%	+0.6%
Freight TSI (Index)	137.8	-0.6%	+0.4%
Industrial Vacancy	9.2%	N/A	+120 bps
Avg. Industrial Rent ($/SF)	$8.87	N/A	+5.4%

What Changed

Warehouse Employment fell 0.3% month-over-month to 1,827,000 in January 2026 — now 2.9% below year-ago levels and well off the all-time high of 1,939,300 set in March 2022. Layoffs in transportation, warehousing, and utilities jumped by 103,000 in December, while quits in the broader trade/transport/utilities sector rose by 111,000. The labor market is cooling, but not collapsing.

Industrial Production closed December at 102.3 (2017=100), up 0.4% on the month and 2.0% year-over-year. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% in December, though it declined at an annualized -0.7% rate for Q4 overall. The January 2026 IP data releases February 18.

Diesel ticked up to $3.69/gal nationally (week ending Feb. 10), a slight increase week-over-week. January averaged $3.52/gal, down from $3.62 in December and below the $3.63 year-ago level. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects diesel will average $3.50 for 2026, driven by lower crude prices (Brent expected to average $55/bbl vs. $69 in 2025).

Freight Conditions showed mixed signals heading into mid-February. The BTS Freight Transportation Services Index fell 0.6% in December from November, though it remained up 0.4% year-over-year — suggesting freight volumes are roughly flat on an annual basis despite monthly volatility. The BLS Producer Price Index for long-distance truckload freight has been trending modestly higher since mid-2025, consistent with a market that has moved past the floor of the 2023–2024 freight recession but hasn't entered a strong upcycle. Winter storms across the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic in late January and early February tightened spot capacity in affected lanes, and industry reports indicate temporary rate spikes in storm-affected corridors before normalizing in the second week of February.

Industrial Vacancy reached 9.2% nationally as of December 2025, up 120 basis points year-over-year (CommercialEdge). That's more than double the sub-4% rates of 2022. Last year's deliveries topped 300 million SF — the slowest year for completions since 2017 — and the construction pipeline has contracted to 357 million SF under construction, suggesting the supply wave is fading. Vacancy is expected to plateau through mid-2026 as absorption catches up with moderating deliveries.

Industrial Rent growth continued to decelerate. National in-place rents averaged $8.87/SF at year-end 2025, up 5.4% year-over-year (CommercialEdge). That's well below the double-digit growth of 2021–2022 but still positive. The spread between in-place rents and new leases signed over the past year has been narrowing — another sign that the market is stabilizing rather than deteriorating.

What It Means for Operators

The warehouse labor picture is loosening in a way that should start showing up in your operating costs. At 1,827,000 jobs — down nearly 6% from the 2022 peak — the sector is shedding headcount steadily. For operators who have been paying premium wages or relying on expensive temp staffing to fill shifts, the calculus is shifting. Voluntary quits are up, layoffs are up, and overall transportation sector unemployment has climbed to 4.4%, almost a full point above last year. If you're heading into contract renewals with staffing agencies, you have more leverage than you've had in two years. Push for rate concessions.

On fuel, don't rush to restructure surcharges just yet. Diesel at $3.69 is still above the EIA's $3.50 full-year forecast, and the Q1 seasonal peak hasn't fully unwound. But the trend is clearly down — crude inventories are building, OPEC production is expanding, and Brent futures are pointed toward $55/bbl. For operators quoting new business, model your surcharges against a $3.40–$3.60 range for mid-year. If you're locked into legacy surcharge schedules pegged to $3.75+, it's worth opening that conversation with customers now before rates compress further and shippers start asking questions first.

Freight conditions tell a story of temporary tightness over weak fundamentals. The weather-driven capacity crunch in late January and early February pushed spot rates sharply higher in storm-affected corridors, particularly across the Midwest. In ACT Research's view, this strength is episodic rather than structural, reflecting weather shocks atop still-soft underlying demand. The BTS freight index's near-flat year-over-year performance supports that read — we're not in a freight boom. In our view, spot tightness is likely to ease through the spring before the traditional summer ramp. For warehouse operators relying on inbound freight flow to drive throughput, plan for softer volumes in Q2. For those offering transload or cross-dock services, weather-driven rate volatility creates short-term margin opportunities — lean into spot exposure while it lasts, but don't staff up permanently on what is still a weather story.

Leasing conditions are the headline to watch for 2026. Vacancy at 9.2% nationally, construction slowing sharply, and rent growth decelerating — this is a tenant's market for most size segments and geographies. If your lease expires in the next 12–18 months, start touring alternatives now, even if you plan to stay. Landlords are increasingly willing to negotiate on rate, free rent, and tenant improvement allowances to avoid giving back space to a market that takes quarters to absorb it. Rent escalation clauses should be negotiable below 3% in most markets outside the tightest port-adjacent corridors.

Regional Snapshot

Midwest: The region saw the most acute weather-driven freight disruptions in early 2026. Winter storms constrained trucking capacity across the 13-state Midwest corridor, which handles an outsized share of national freight volume. Spot rates spiked temporarily before normalizing in the second week of February. With manufacturing production showing year-over-year gains per the Fed's G.17 report, Midwest operators near automotive, machinery, and consumer goods corridors should prepare for uneven but potentially sticky demand. Watch for whether the weather-driven rate premium holds through February or fades as conditions normalize.

West Coast / Inland Empire: Los Angeles industrial vacancy reached 8.5% in December 2025, just below the national average, while the Inland Empire sat at 8.4% and the Bay Area at 7.9% (CommercialEdge). West Coast warehouse rents declined over the course of 2025 after years of aggressive increases. California produce regions are entering peak season for reefer shipments out of Coachella and Imperial Valley — historically a period of tight capacity and elevated rates on produce lanes to East Coast markets. Softening rents and port-adjacent demand create opportunities for operators looking to lock in favorable lease terms near the LA/Long Beach complex.

Sun Belt (DFW, Atlanta, Nashville): These markets continue to see the strongest rent growth nationally. Atlanta led major U.S. markets in in-place industrial rent growth at 8.8% year-over-year through late 2025 (CommercialEdge). Nearshoring activity along the I-35 and I-29 corridors — driven by Mexico supply chain diversification — is adding demand in San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, and Kansas City. If your network has gaps in the south-central U.S., now is the time to scout space before the next wave of nearshoring-driven leasing tightens availability further.

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Market data cited in this post is sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, U.S. Energy Information Administration, and CommercialEdge, and reflects conditions as of the week ending February 15, 2026. 3PL Signal does not independently verify third-party data. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as the basis for business, financial, or operational decisions. Always verify current market conditions through primary sources and consult qualified professionals before acting.